Last week, you might have seen that ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.4% to US$118 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$20b were in line with what the analysts predicted, ConocoPhillips surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$3.23 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ConocoPhillips from 13 analysts is for revenues of US$72.2b in 2026. If met, it would imply a notable 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 34% to US$10.30. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$71.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.72 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$143, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic ConocoPhillips analyst has a price target of US$189 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$115. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ConocoPhillips' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting ConocoPhillips' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 26% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ConocoPhillips is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around ConocoPhillips' earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ConocoPhillips. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple ConocoPhillips analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with ConocoPhillips .

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.