Constellation Brands (STZ) has just wrapped up FY 2026 with fourth quarter revenue of US$1,920.2 million and basic EPS of US$1.16. The latest trailing twelve month figures show revenue of US$9.1 billion and EPS of US$9.62. Over recent periods, quarterly revenue has ranged from US$1,920.2 million to US$2,515 million, with basic EPS between US$1.16 and US$3.40. This sets up a picture of earnings that now sit against a return to profitability on a trailing basis and margins that investors will be watching closely.

See our full analysis for Constellation Brands.

With the headline results on the table, the next step is to see how these numbers line up against the widely followed narratives around Constellation Brands's growth, risks, and long term earnings power.

TTM profit swings back to US$1.7b

• Over the last twelve months, Constellation Brands generated about US$9.1b in revenue and US$1.7b in net income, compared with a loss of US$81.4 million in the earlier trailing period provided.
• What stands out for the bullish narrative is that this move to US$1.7b of profit backs the view that higher margins can support long term earnings power, yet it also highlights execution risk:
  • Bulls point to plans for roughly US$9b in operating cash flow and US$6b in free cash flow from fiscal 2026 to 2028. The recent return to profit shows the business can generate earnings, but the modest forecast revenue growth of about 2.5% a year means much of the story relies on keeping margins strong.
  • The bullish case expects margin expansion and higher earnings per share over time. The shift from prior trailing losses to US$9.62 of EPS over the latest twelve months supports that directionally, though the quarterly pattern, from US$3.40 EPS in Q1 to US$1.16 in Q4, shows that results can vary through the year.

On these numbers, bulls argue the recent return to US$1.7b of profit is the foundation for a stronger long term story, while the quarterly swings show why some investors want more confirmation before leaning fully into that view. 🐂 Constellation Brands Bull Case

Debt and 2.5% yield keep risk in focus

• The company is flagged as carrying a high level of debt and currently pays a dividend yield of about 2.5%, so a meaningful part of shareholder return depends on both ongoing cash generation and balance sheet management.
• Bears highlight that high leverage, together with relatively modest forecast revenue growth of about 2.5% a year, leaves less room for error if costs or volumes come under pressure:
  • Concerns around tariffs on wine, spirits and aluminum cans, as well as spending pullbacks from key consumer groups, line up with the risk that operating margins could be squeezed even though current analysis still expects earnings to grow around 7.2% a year.
  • The combination of higher input costs and dependence on specific beer brands and regions is exactly what cautious investors focus on when they see debt already flagged as a risk, because it raises the importance of that 2.5% dividend being supported by stable cash flows.

Skeptics argue that the high debt level, tariff exposure and modest revenue growth forecasts together make the recent profitability less comfortable than it looks at first glance, especially with a 2.5% dividend to fund. 🐻 Constellation Brands Bear Case

DCF fair value sits well above US$163 share price

• The current share price of US$163.07 sits well below the stated DCF fair value of about US$309.38, and the stock trades on a P/E of 16.8x versus 18.8x for peers and 16.9x for the wider beverage group.
• Consensus narrative notes that this apparent discount sits alongside relatively steady growth expectations, which creates a clear tension between valuation models and more cautious growth assumptions:
  • Forecast earnings growth of roughly 7.2% a year and revenue growth of about 2.5% a year are not especially fast, so the large gap between US$163.07 and the US$309.38 DCF fair value depends heavily on margin strength being maintained in the years ahead.
  • At the same time, the 16.8x P/E being below the 18.8x peer average suggests the market is already applying a modest discount relative to similar beverage companies, even though the company has moved from trailing losses to US$1.7b of profit over the latest twelve months.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Constellation Brands on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

The mix of bullish and cautious points in this article shows how split opinion can be. Act quickly, review the numbers, and decide where you stand by checking the 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

See What Else Is Out There

Constellation Brands pairs high debt and a 2.5% dividend yield with modest forecast revenue growth, so the story relies heavily on maintaining robust margins.

If that mix feels a bit tight for your risk comfort, now is a good time to look at companies in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (40 results) that aim to pair earnings potential with sturdier financial footing.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.