Cordiant Capital says private credit stress is concentrated in US corporate direct lending, not infrastructure debt

  • Cordiant Capital flagged a “category error” in private credit, with current stress concentrated in US corporate direct lending, not infrastructure credit.
  • It put global private credit at about $3.5 trillion AUM, with the US at roughly 65%.
  • Headline default rates below 2% understate strain; Fitch estimated “true stress” near 6% when PIK and liability management are included.
  • PIK income at listed BDCs reached about 8% of investment income, signaling more borrowers are deferring cash interest payments.
  • It said European infrastructure debt has shown broadly stable credit quality through 2025, supported by asset-backed security and contracted revenues.


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