Credicorp (NYSE:BAP) Stock After 74% Year Gain Is The Rally Getting Ahead Of Itself?
Credicorp Ltd. BAP | 0.00 |
- If you are wondering whether Credicorp stock is still reasonably priced after a strong run, the next sections will walk through what the current market price might be implying about its value.
- Credicorp recently closed at US$362.32, with returns of 13.3% over the past week, 14.5% over the past month, 26.5% year to date and 73.9% over the last year. The 3 year and 5 year returns stand at 188.6% and 305.6% respectively.
- Recent trading interest has been shaped by ongoing coverage of Credicorp as a key Peruvian financial group and its role in regional banking, which has kept the stock on many investors' radars. Broader discussions around Latin American financials and capital flows into the region have also helped frame how investors are thinking about the risk and return profile of Credicorp stock.
- On Simply Wall St's 6 point valuation framework, Credicorp currently scores 4 out of 6. The rest of this article will break down what that means using different valuation approaches, before ending with a broader way to think about valuation that goes beyond the numbers alone.
Approach 1: Credicorp Excess Returns Analysis
The Excess Returns model looks at how much value Credicorp stock might create above the return that shareholders require. It compares the return on equity to the cost of equity and then capitalizes those "excess" profits into an estimate of intrinsic value per share.
For Credicorp, the model uses a Book Value of US$503.70 per share and a Stable EPS of US$118.17 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 9 analysts. The Average Return on Equity is 20.37%, while the Cost of Equity is US$57.18 per share. That gap produces an Excess Return of US$60.99 per share, supported by a Stable Book Value of US$580.14 per share, based on estimates from 8 analysts.
When these excess returns are projected and discounted, the model points to an intrinsic value of about US$454.47 per share. Against the recent share price of US$362.32, this indicates the stock is around 20.3% undervalued under this framework.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Credicorp is undervalued by 20.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 47 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: Credicorp Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like Credicorp, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. A higher or lower P/E often reflects what the market expects for future growth and how risky those earnings are perceived to be, so there is no single “good” number in isolation.
Credicorp currently trades on a P/E of 13.58x. That sits above the Banks industry average P/E of 11.74x, but below the peer group average of 16.77x. To refine this, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 14.54x, which aims to capture what a more tailored P/E might look like for Credicorp given its earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market value and risk characteristics.
This Fair Ratio is designed to be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry, because it adjusts for some of the key factors that usually drive valuation differences. Comparing Credicorp’s current P/E of 13.58x with the Fair Ratio of 14.54x suggests the stock trades below this framework’s implied level, which points to it being undervalued on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Credicorp Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach your own story about Credicorp to the numbers by linking a clear view of the business, a financial forecast and a Fair Value that you can compare with the current price to decide whether the stock looks attractive or stretched.
On the Community page, you can pick or build a Credicorp Narrative that matches how you see its digital push, dividend policy, board changes and Peru exposure. The platform will then translate that view into revenue, earnings and margin assumptions that sit behind a Fair Value which updates automatically as new news or earnings arrive.
For example, one investor might lean toward the more optimistic Narrative that lines up with Fair Value around US$415, while another might choose a more cautious view closer to US$290. By seeing both stories and valuations side by side, you can quickly judge which Credicorp Narrative feels more realistic for your own investment decisions.
For Credicorp however we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Credicorp Narratives:
Fair value: US$363.01
Gap to fair value: about 0.2% below the narrative fair value
Implied revenue growth: 14.23% a year
- Focuses on Credicorp expanding digital services and financial inclusion in Peru, which analysts link to higher fee and loan income.
- Assumes that earnings can grow with revenue while profit margins ease slightly, supported by continued investment in technology and efficiency.
- Anchors on an analyst consensus fair value of US$363.01, with different price targets reflecting differing views on Peru risk, digital execution and regulation.
Fair value: US$360.00
Gap to fair value: about 0.6% above the narrative fair value
Implied revenue growth: 13.89% a year
- Frames Credicorp around a more optimistic analyst cohort that expects strong growth from Yape, microfinance and cross selling across banking, insurance and asset management.
- Bases its view on higher assumed revenue growth and earnings in the retail and SME segments, while also acknowledging higher credit risk and cost pressures from digital expansion.
- Uses a bullish fair value of US$360.00 that sits above prior consensus, with the gap to that figure depending on how readers rate political risk in Peru, pension reforms and exposure to commodity cycles.
If you want to see how these stories look in full, side by side with the numbers and risks, you can head to the Credicorp Community section and compare the Narratives that best fit your own view of the stock.
Do you think there's more to the story for Credicorp? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
