Criteo (CRTO) has opened Q1 2026 with revenue of US$424.6 million and basic EPS of US$0.16, with the latest quarter sitting against a trailing twelve month EPS of US$2.20 on revenue of about US$1.9 billion. Over recent quarters the company has seen revenue move from US$451.4 million in Q1 2025 to US$541.1 million in Q4 2025 and EPS range between US$0.40 and US$0.91, giving investors a clear view of how top line and per share earnings have tracked into this latest print. With net profit margins previously at 7.4% on a trailing basis and consensus flagging pressure ahead, this set of results puts profitability quality and sustainability in sharp focus for the market.

See our full analysis for Criteo.

With the raw numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up against the widely held narratives around Criteo's growth prospects, risks, and long term potential.

TTM earnings of US$114.5 million contrast with softer Q1

• Over the last twelve months Criteo earned US$114.5 million of net income on US$1.9b of revenue, while Q1 2026 on its own came in at US$7.8 million of net income on US$424.6 million of revenue, showing a much lower contribution this quarter than the recent annual run rate.
• What stands out for the bullish narrative is that this trailing net income of US$114.5 million sits alongside a 7.4% net margin. Yet analysts in the supplied data still model revenue declines of about 11.5% to 12.3% a year and earnings slipping from US$144.6 million to about US$133 million by 2029, which creates a tension between recent profitability and the expectation that top line and earnings will shrink despite bulls pointing to AI driven products and Retail Media as long term supports.
  • Bulls highlight Criteo's first party data and AI tools as a way to support margins above the current 7.4% level, while the forecasts provided assume margins rise to around 9.9% to 10.2% even as revenue is expected to trend down from about US$1.9b to roughly US$1.3b.
  • The same bullish set of assumptions also relies on the stock trading on a higher P/E than today, at around 11.4x to 16.5x on future earnings, even though the current trailing P/E is 6.9x and earnings growth over the last year was 29.6%. This means the recent backward looking growth is stronger than the forward earnings path that bullish estimates are using.

Investors who want to see how this more optimistic story fits together with the latest numbers can go deeper into the detailed bull case 🐂 Criteo Bull Case

Low 6.9x P/E and DCF fair value of US$177.89

• Criteo's trailing P/E of 6.9x sits well below the reported US Media industry average of 14.2x and a peer average of 33.6x, and the supplied DCF fair value of US$177.89 is far above the current share price of US$15.86, pointing to a large gap between current pricing and that model based estimate.
• Consensus narrative language suggests the company is working on AI powered targeting, Retail Media and broader Commerce Media. This low multiple combined with margin at 7.4% raises the question of whether the market discount is mainly about the forecasts that call for revenue contracting by about 12.3% a year and earnings easing from US$144.6 million to about US$134 million, even as analysts expect margins to edge higher and shares outstanding to decline about 6.2% a year.
  • Those consensus assumptions imply earnings per share of about US$3.13 by 2029 with a target P/E of 11.4x, compared with the current trailing EPS of US$2.20 and P/E of 6.9x, so the stated targets rely on both margin expansion and a higher multiple than today.
  • At the same time, the share price of US$15.86 sits below the allowed analyst target figure of US$28.86, so the differences between current trading, the target, and the DCF fair value figure reflect how heavily the forecasts of falling revenue weigh against the recent period of earnings growth and margin improvement in the data.

Forecast revenue decline tests the bearish arguments

• The provided data show analysts expecting revenue to decline between about 11.6% and 17.1% per year over the next three years, from around US$1.9b today toward about US$1.1b to US$1.3b, even though trailing twelve month earnings were US$114.5 million with a 7.4% net margin and earnings grew 29.6% over the last year.
• Bears argue that privacy rules, cookie deprecation and pressure from large platforms will keep putting pressure on Criteo's core retargeting and limit revenue, and the forecast drop in revenue supports that cautionary view. However, the same bearish framework also assumes profit margins could rise from around 7% to 13.2% and earnings reach about US$146.8 million by 2028, which means the concern is focused on the revenue line rather than on the ability to generate profits at higher margin.
  • Within that bearish setup, the assumed P/E of 8.9x on 2028 earnings is above the current 6.9x but below the US Media industry multiple mentioned in the data, indicating that even the cautious scenario allows for some lift in profitability and valuation from where things stand today.
  • Critics in the bearish camp also point to competition and rising AI and compliance costs, and those concerns line up with the expectation of revenue contraction. At the same time, they sit alongside continued share count reduction of about 6.5% a year according to the inputs, which mechanically supports earnings per share even if absolute earnings are not growing strongly in the forecasts.

If you want to see how these concerns are laid out in full and what could go wrong from here, take a closer look at the cautious thesis 🐻 Criteo Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Criteo on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With both cautious and optimistic views in play, do you feel the balance of risk and reward is clear enough for your own decision making? Take a moment to review the data, compare both sides, and then weigh up the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

See What Else Is Out There

Criteo's earnings story reflects shrinking revenue expectations, a focus on higher future margins and the potential for multiple expansion, which together signal meaningful uncertainty in the long-term profile.

If that mix of forecast revenue pressure and reliance on richer future valuations feels uncomfortable, compare it with companies that already combine quality, value and resilience using the 47 high quality undervalued stocks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.