SPCX is set to hit the NASDAQ in June, and crypto markets have already begun pricing the asset. A rapidly growing shadow market now lets retail investors speculate on SpaceX’s valuation before public trading.​

A perpetual contract platform, Trade.xyz, has launched a futures contract that tracks the expected market value of SpaceX, without any affiliation with the company. The contract has seen a 44% increase in value ever since.​

According to the BBC, some analysts believe the SpaceX IPO could impact the net worth of its major shareholders. Elon Musk, who holds substantial SpaceX shares, may see these valued at over $600 billion. Pre-IPO trading suggests that current valuations may serve as a starting point.

​What is SpaceX?

SpaceX is a space exploration company founded by Elon Musk. The company's largest product, Starlink, has over 10 million subscribers and reported 1.9 billion in Q1 profit. SpaceX remains committed to space travel, having evolved from reusable rocket missions to becoming a key partner with NASA for orbital journeys.​

Recent engagements include rocket launching services for Spaceship and Falcon 9. In these programs, SpaceX continues to focus on reducing the costs of space exploration. The company has reduced launching costs from as much as $54,000 per kg on the Space Shuttle to under $3,000 per kg on the Falcon 9.

Other business areas associated with SpaceX include xAI and X (formerly Twitter). In February 2026, Musk merged xAI with SpaceX. xAI, which develops the AI product Grok as a competitor to ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, has yet to report profit due to ongoing expenditures.​

Last year, xAI reported that 78% of its 465 million revenue from AI solutions and infrastructure came from X and Grok subscriptions. However, SpaceX filings show that only 21% of X's monthly active users engage with Grok. This metric implies a large user base but a relatively slow adoption of the AI feature. Musk believes xAI will benefit from the impending IPO for continued expansion in AI compute.

Plans and Expectations Surrounding the Upcoming Initial Public Offering Launch.

Elon Musk is setting the stage for one of the largest IPOs in history. It is expected to raise $70 billion, exceeding Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO in 2020. SpaceX will go public under the ticker SPCX. Roadshow to pull institutional investors begins on June 8, while trading on the open market kicks off later in the month. Goldman Sachs leads the offering alongside Morgan Stanley, with other reputable financial powerhouses including JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, and Bank of America, as stated in the filing prospectus.​

A major consideration is Tesla’s founder’s ownership stake in SpaceX. Elon Musk holds 85% voting rights. SpaceX shares will be offered under a dual-class structure: Class A and Class B. Class A, open to the public, carries one vote per share, while Class B, restricted to insiders, carries ten votes per share. Elon Musk holds 93.6% of Class B shares and 12.3% of Class A shares.

​These holdings pose specific risks to shareholders. Because public shareholders will only hold Class A shares with one vote per share, they will have limited influence over company decisions. With Musk controlling 93.6% of the higher-voting Class B shares, public investors may have little say in company leadership or strategic direction. This structure means minority shareholders depend on Musk’s decisions regarding profitability and governance.

​On the flip side, this share structure is a grey area that investors may overlook given Elon Musk's leadership history. His vision has brought SpaceX this far and made Tesla a phoenix from the ashes. Those who buy into the offering must have full confidence in Elon's mission to steer SpaceX to greater heights.

​How Crypto Is Shaping the Price of SPCX?

As the SpaceX IPO approaches, crypto markets are pricing the event in advance. Retail investors, who generally do not have access to pre-IPO offerings, can use these secondary markets for early exposure. Current activity around SpaceX differs from similar events in the market.

​Bloomberg reports that the space exploration company is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion while seeking to raise $75 billion in its IPO. In SpaceX’s filing prospectus, it disclosed holding 18,712 units of Bitcoin as of December 31, 2025. This figure puts SpaceX among companies with the largest corporate Bitcoin holdings.

​On May 17, Hyperliquid launched a perpetual futures contract on SpaceX’s upcoming IPO. This contract provides an avenue to place bets on how much the company trades when it lists. The contract, opening under the ticker SPCX-USDC, uses a 150 price mark to reference an expected valuation of 1.8 trillion dollars.

​With Hyperliquid's product, investors have no claim to voting rights, dividends, or company disclosures from SpaceX. The synthetic derivatives rely on market data from oracles and trading activity.

​Since the contract started trading, its price has moved from $150 to $216, suggesting an upward trend in perceived valuation before stabilizing at $203. In the first 12 hours, SPCX-USDC recorded a trading volume of 40 million. This trading activity may provide insights about market expectations ahead of the public offering.​​

Regulatory questions take center stage as synthetic trading markets grow

Demand for synthetic pre-IPO products is growing, attracting other big players in the crypto industry such as Binance, OKX, and Bitget. These exchanges have introduced similar products in recent months. However, synthetic trading has posed regulatory questions.

​A key concern is the information gap. Investors in synthetic trading need to know the status of this product, which exposes them to market speculation and deprives them of any institutional participation. Unlike with public companies, SpaceX is under no obligation to disclose as much information.

​Also, regulatory agencies have yet to decide how to refer to a crypto product tied to the valuation of a private company. Should it be known as a security, a derivative product, or given a new class?

​Legal experts note that regulatory agencies such as the SEC and CFTC may review similar products for compliance with existing regulations. Dependence on market data can create opportunities for price discrepancies. Unauthorized trading in synthetic markets may expose the company to legal risks, and limited company disclosures can lead to misalignment between trading prices and company fundamentals.

What does the future hold for shadow markets?

Hyperliquid has become a leading avenue for exposure when traditional markets are shut. The decentralized platform has enabled traders to hedge exposure to gold, silver, and oil since the US-Iran tensions began.

​While regulation continues to evolve, some market analysts note the notable growth of pre-IPO markets. These markets may contribute to broader trading participation by expanding financial access.

​The volume behind this perpetual contract suggests significant market interest in exposure to major private companies. If this SpaceX contract aligns with listing prices, synthetic private company trading may continue to expand its presence on the blockchain.

Author Disclaimer: I have no affiliation, financial interest, or connection with Trade.xyz.

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.