It's been a pretty great week for Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (NYSE:CTOS) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$9.85 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Revenues of US$462m arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.02, an impressive 62% smaller than what broker models predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Custom Truck One Source's seven analysts is for revenues of US$2.05b in 2026. This would reflect a reasonable 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Custom Truck One Source forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.11 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.059 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the great increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 20% to US$9.79. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Custom Truck One Source at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Custom Truck One Source's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Custom Truck One Source is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Custom Truck One Source following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Custom Truck One Source analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Custom Truck One Source's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.