Shareholders might have noticed that Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.7% to US$96.04 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$1.0b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Deckers Outdoor surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.94 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Deckers Outdoor's 24 analysts is for revenues of US$5.88b in 2027. This would reflect a satisfactory 6.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$7.53, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.90b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.49 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$123, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Deckers Outdoor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$184 and the most bearish at US$85.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Deckers Outdoor's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Deckers Outdoor's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Deckers Outdoor's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Deckers Outdoor analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Deckers Outdoor Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.