Recent share performance puts Deckers Outdoor in focus

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) has come onto investors’ radar after a period of weaker share performance, with the stock down over the past month, past 3 months, year to date, and the past year.

Against that backdrop, the company’s latest reported revenue of US$5.53b and net income of US$1.01b offer a starting point for assessing how current market pricing lines up with its underlying footwear and apparel business across UGG, HOKA, Teva, Koolaburra and AHNU.

At the current share price of US$88.74, Deckers Outdoor has seen its short term momentum fade, with the 30 day share price return down 7.6% and the 90 day share price return down 22.4%, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 27.24% paints a more resilient longer term picture.

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Bulls point to Deckers Outdoor’s US$5.53b revenue base and US$1.01b net income, while bears highlight the sharp recent share price pullback. Which side does the current valuation appear to support?

Most Popular Narrative: 27.7% Undervalued

Against Deckers Outdoor's last close of $88.74, the most widely followed narrative points to a fair value of $122.81, which implies a sizeable valuation gap based on its long term earnings and cash flow profile.

The UGG and HOKA brands have shown significant growth, with expectations to continue driving revenue increases through innovative product launches and expanding brand recognition globally. This will likely impact revenue growth positively.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how a multi brand portfolio, direct to consumer mix and margin assumptions combine into that fair value number? The core of this narrative is a specific revenue glide path and profit profile that must hold through the next cycle. Curious which earnings and valuation multiples need to line up for the $122.81 figure to make sense.

Result: Fair Value of $122.81 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this Deckers Outdoor narrative could be knocked off course if currency swings pressure margins or if a more promotional environment erodes UGG and HOKA pricing power.

Next Steps

With sentiment on Deckers Outdoor split between recent share price weakness and a perceived valuation gap, it makes sense to move quickly, review the underlying data yourself, and then weigh those findings against the 4 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.