Shareholders might have noticed that Dillard's, Inc. (NYSE:DDS) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.4% to US$561 in the past week. Revenues were US$1.5b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$6.25, an impressive 45% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Dillard's after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, Dillard's' three analysts currently expect revenues in 2027 to be US$6.60b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 3.4% to US$42.15 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.62b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$39.74 in 2027. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Dillard's' earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$538, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Dillard's, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$650 and the most bearish at US$468 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Dillard's' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Dillard's' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.003% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 0.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Dillard's.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Dillard's' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$538, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Dillard's going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Dillard's (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.