• In late June 2026, Bath & Body Works announced a partnership to bring a curated range of its body care and home fragrance products into more than 600 Ulta Beauty stores and Ulta.com, beginning July 12, 2026, while Ulta was also removed from the Russell 1000 Dynamic Index.
• This combination of losing a major index spot while adding a high-profile brand partner highlights how Ulta is reshaping its distribution and product mix at the same time.
• Next, we’ll examine how the end of Ulta’s Target shop-in-shop partnership could alter that previously optimistic investment narrative.

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Ulta Beauty Investment Narrative Recap

To own Ulta Beauty, you need to believe its broad beauty assortment, loyalty program and omnichannel model can keep traffic and spending resilient, even as consumer habits shift. Near term, the key catalyst is how effectively Ulta backfills the upcoming Target exit with new brands and channels, while the biggest risk is margin pressure from higher costs and softer category demand. The Bath & Body Works tie-up and index removal do not fundamentally change that risk/reward focus.

The Bath & Body Works partnership is the most relevant recent announcement here, because it speaks directly to Ulta’s ability to refresh its product mix and drive repeat visits without Target. For investors watching catalysts, this kind of high-traffic brand addition sits alongside wellness expansion and exclusive launches as potential offsets to lost Target traffic, while also testing how much Ulta’s store base and online platform can still surprise on customer engagement.

Yet beneath these brand wins, there is a cost and store footprint risk that investors should be aware of if Ulta’s traffic trends start to...

Ulta Beauty's narrative projects $14.9 billion revenue and $1.4 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 5.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.2 billion earnings increase from $1.2 billion today.

Uncover how Ulta Beauty's forecasts yield a $627.25 fair value, a 36% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts see much tougher conditions than the consensus, expecting only about US$14.7 billion of revenue and US$1.3 billion of earnings by 2029, so if you are worried about rising online competition and pressured margins, this Bath & Body Works deal and the Target exit could be exactly the kind of test that reshapes those more cautious views.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Ulta Beauty - why the stock might be worth just $566.29!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Ulta Beauty research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ulta Beauty research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ulta Beauty's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.