• Earlier this week, Texas Capital Securities analyst Matt Key initiated coverage on Century Aluminum with a buy rating, potentially reshaping how investors assess the company’s prospects.
• This new coverage, arriving alongside AI-driven trading signals and multi-timeframe support and resistance mapping, could amplify institutional attention and trading activity in Century Aluminum.
• We’ll now examine how this fresh analyst coverage and its influence on sentiment may affect Century Aluminum’s existing investment narrative.

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Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

To own Century Aluminum, you need to believe that tight primary aluminum supply, supportive U.S. trade policy and domestic capacity expansion can outweigh volatility in premiums, energy and input costs. Matt Key’s new buy rating and US$42 target may reinforce the existing bullish sentiment, but it does not materially change the near term focus on execution at Mt. Holly and exposure to any future changes in U.S. tariffs or power arrangements.

The recent extension of Century’s power agreement with Santee Cooper to 2031, underpinning the Mt. Holly restart, ties directly into this story of expanding U.S. capacity to capture domestic demand. It supports the key catalyst of higher volumes and potential margin benefits from better fixed cost absorption, while sitting alongside the risk that any shift in government incentives or power pricing could still alter the economics of these long term commitments.

Yet while sentiment has strengthened, investors should be aware of how dependent Century remains on current tariff policies and power contracts...

Century Aluminum's narrative projects $3.0 billion revenue and $479.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $368 million earnings increase from $111.4 million today.

Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $36.00 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$22 to US$66 per share, showing how differently people are assessing Century’s future. As you weigh these views against the Mt. Holly expansion and Century’s reliance on favorable U.S. trade and power conditions, it becomes clear why checking several perspectives can be useful before forming your own stance.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth 39% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.