• In June 2026, President Trump signed two executive orders to accelerate U.S. quantum computing development and mandate a federal shift to quantum-resistant encryption by 2030–2031, reinforcing quantum technology as a national priority and creating clearer procurement pathways for providers such as D-Wave Quantum.
• Ahead of this policy push, D-Wave had already secured a US$100.00 million Department of Commerce grant under the CHIPS and Science Act and launched an error-aware gate-model simulator, together underscoring its role as both a commercial and government-focused quantum computing supplier.
• We’ll now examine how this federal push for quantum systems and post-quantum cryptography could reshape D-Wave’s investment narrative and risk profile.

Find 44 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

D-Wave Quantum Investment Narrative Recap

To own D-Wave Quantum, you essentially have to believe that commercial and government demand for practical quantum systems will keep deepening, and that D-Wave’s superconducting annealing plus gate-model roadmap will matter in that shift. The new U.S. quantum executive orders could support that thesis by formalizing federal demand and procurement paths, but they do not remove the near term pressure of widening losses and reliance on a handful of large system deals.

The recent US$100.00 million Department of Commerce grant under the CHIPS and Science Act looks especially relevant here. It reinforces D-Wave’s position as a U.S. aligned supplier just as Washington is codifying long term quantum and post quantum cryptography goals, and it may strengthen the company’s hand when competing for government quantum hubs and QCaaS workloads that underpin many of the current growth catalysts.

But while policy support is encouraging, investors should still be aware that the concentration in large, lumpy system sales means that if even one expected contract slips or fails to renew...

D-Wave Quantum's narrative projects $122.5 million revenue and $15.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 71.8% yearly revenue growth and a $414.0 million earnings increase from $-398.8 million today.

Uncover how D-Wave Quantum's forecasts yield a $38.54 fair value, a 54% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already assuming around US$102.4 million of revenue by 2029 and very high implied valuation multiples, so compared with the baseline view their narrative is far more cautious about how quickly D-Wave’s technology, including its government focused roadmap, can scale into sustainable earnings.

Explore 34 other fair value estimates on D-Wave Quantum - why the stock might be worth over 5x more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your D-Wave Quantum research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free D-Wave Quantum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate D-Wave Quantum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.