Dollar Tree's Q1 adjusted EPS jumps 38%, beats estimates; FY outlook raised

Dollar Tree, Inc.

Dollar Tree, Inc.

DLTR

0.00


Overview

  • US value retailer's Q1 net sales rose 7.2%, slightly beating analyst expectations

  • Adjusted EPS for Q1 increased 38% to $1.74, beating analyst expectations

  • Company returned $595 mln to shareholders through Q1 share repurchases


Outlook

  • Dollar Tree raises fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $6.70-$7.10

  • Company expects Q2 net sales of $4.8 bln-$4.9 bln and adjusted EPS of $1.00-$1.15

  • Dollar Tree sees fiscal 2026 comparable store net sales growth of 3%-4%


Result Drivers

  • HIGHER AVERAGE TICKET - Comparable store net sales growth was driven by a 4.5% increase in average ticket, partially offset by a 1.0% decline in traffic

  • GROSS MARGIN IMPROVEMENT - Gross profit margin increased 120 basis points, primarily due to higher mark-on, lower freight costs, and lower shrink, partially offset by higher tariff costs and higher markdowns

  • STORE EXPANSION - Opened 113 new stores and converted or added about 630 stores to the multi-price format, ending the quarter with approximately 5,900 multi-price stores


Company press release: ID:nBwc8gG8ka


Key Details

Metric

Beat/Miss

Actual

Consensus Estimate

Q1 Sales

Slight Beat*

$4.97 bln

$4.96 bln (21 Analysts)

Q1 Adjusted EPS

Beat

$1.74

$1.54 (24 Analysts)

Q1 Net Income

$347.3 mln

Q1 Same Store Sales Growth

3.5%

*Applies to a deviation of less than 1%; not applicable for per-share numbers.


Analyst Coverage

  • The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is 9 "strong buy" or "buy", 12 "hold" and 7 "sell" or "strong sell"

  • The average consensus recommendation for the discount stores peer group is "buy."

  • Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Dollar Tree Inc is $115.00, about 20% above its May 27 closing price of $95.87

  • The stock recently traded at 14 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 18 three months ago


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