It's been a good week for Dorman Products, Inc. (NASDAQ:DORM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.3% to US$138. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$545m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 55%, coming in at US$2.93 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Dorman Products from eight analysts is for revenues of US$2.23b in 2026. If met, it would imply an okay 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 10% to US$8.15. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.66 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of US$160, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Dorman Products, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$170 and the most bearish at US$140 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Dorman Products' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 6.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Dorman Products' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Dorman Products' earnings potential next year. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at US$160, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Dorman Products going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Dorman Products' balance sheet, and whether we think Dorman Products is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.