Shareholders of Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 15% to US$9.07 following its latest second-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$442m were what the analysts expected, Hillman Solutions surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.11 per share, an impressive 31% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Hillman Solutions are now predicting revenues of US$1.68b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a credible 4.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 32% to US$0.28. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.23 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$12.29, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Hillman Solutions analyst has a price target of US$14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Hillman Solutions shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Hillman Solutions' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.9% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Hillman Solutions is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Hillman Solutions following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hillman Solutions. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hillman Solutions going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.