Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (NYSE:FNF) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with US$3.2b revenues missing by 11%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.90 falling short of forecasts by some -12%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following last week's earnings report, Fidelity National Financial's four analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$15.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 91% to US$5.41. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$15.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.76 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$62.20 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Fidelity National Financial analyst has a price target of US$70.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$50.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Fidelity National Financial's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 0.1% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.09% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.5% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Fidelity National Financial is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Fidelity National Financial. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Fidelity National Financial. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Fidelity National Financial going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.