It's been a pretty great week for Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTON) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$5.69 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.06 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$631m and were slightly better than forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Peloton Interactive's 20 analysts are forecasting 2027 revenues to be US$2.44b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 397% to US$0.27. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.28 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$8.03, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Peloton Interactive at US$20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would also point out that the forecast 0.2% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2027 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 12% annually over the past five years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Peloton Interactive to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Peloton Interactive. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Peloton Interactive's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Peloton Interactive. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Peloton Interactive going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.