Last week, you might have seen that ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTN) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to US$7.91 in the past week. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, ADTRAN Holdings' eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$1.15b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 25% to US$0.21. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.17b and losses of US$0.34 per share in 2026. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a considerable decrease in losses per share in particular.

Even with the lower forecast losses, the analysts lowered their valuations, with the average price target falling 21% to US$14.67. It looks likethe analysts have become less optimistic about the overall business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic ADTRAN Holdings analyst has a price target of US$21.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$11.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ADTRAN Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ADTRAN Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ADTRAN Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of ADTRAN Holdings' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ADTRAN Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for ADTRAN Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.