The investors in JELD-WEN Holding, Inc.'s (NYSE:JELD) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 23% to US$1.69 in the week following its quarterly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$722m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.90 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on JELD-WEN Holding after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, JELD-WEN Holding's four analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$3.09b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 80% to US$1.20. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.04b and losses of US$0.45 per share in 2026. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a very substantial increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 10% to US$1.96, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on JELD-WEN Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$2.50 and the most bearish at US$1.60 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would also point out that the forecast 2.6% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2026 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 7.2% annually over the past five years Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 6.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect JELD-WEN Holding to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at JELD-WEN Holding. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of JELD-WEN Holding's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JELD-WEN Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple JELD-WEN Holding analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.