Shareholders might have noticed that Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:KPTI) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.7% to US$2.02 in the past week. Revenues of US$33m beat expectations by a respectable 3.8%, although statutory losses per share increased. Karyopharm Therapeutics lost US$2.32, which was 63% more than what the analysts had included in their models. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the six analysts covering Karyopharm Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$135.9m revenue in 2026, which would reflect a discernible 7.3% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 51% to US$4.85. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$133.7m and US$4.33 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a notable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target fell 57% to US$6.40per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Karyopharm Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$11.00 and the most bearish at US$3.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Karyopharm Therapeutics' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 14% to the end of 2026. This tops off a historical decline of 5.5% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 23% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Karyopharm Therapeutics is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Karyopharm Therapeutics. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Karyopharm Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 6 warning signs with Karyopharm Therapeutics (at least 4 which are significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.