The first-quarter results for Arabian Centres Company (TADAWUL:4321) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues came in 2.8% below expectations, at ر.س583m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of ر.س2.67 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Arabian Centres after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Arabian Centres from four analysts is for revenues of ر.س2.38b in 2026. If met, it would imply an okay 5.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 9.5% to ر.س2.21 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ر.س2.42b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س2.45 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at ر.س19.28, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Arabian Centres analyst has a price target of ر.س26.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ر.س14.10. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Arabian Centres' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.2% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.5% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Arabian Centres is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Arabian Centres. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Arabian Centres' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ر.س19.28, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Arabian Centres. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Arabian Centres going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.