It's been a pretty great week for Ardelyx, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARDX) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to US$6.88 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were a bright spot, with US$94m in revenue arriving 2.5% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$0.15, some 2.3% below consensus predictions. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Ardelyx are now predicting revenues of US$545.5m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a major 28% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 81% to US$0.046 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$549.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.039 in 2026. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$16.33, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Ardelyx analyst has a price target of US$19.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Ardelyx's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 38% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 60% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Ardelyx's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Ardelyx dropped from profits to a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ardelyx. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Ardelyx going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Ardelyx Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.