CytomX Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CTMX) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenue crushed expectations at US$10m, beating expectations by 119%. CytomX Therapeutics reported a statutory loss of US$0.10 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from seven analysts covering CytomX Therapeutics is for revenues of US$33.1m in 2026. This implies a discernible 6.8% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 68% to US$0.48 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$22.2m and US$0.49 per share in losses. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts upgrading this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

The consensus price target rose 52% to US$13.67, with the analysts encouraged by the improved revenue outlook even though the company remains lossmaking. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CytomX Therapeutics at US$17.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$11.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.0% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 18% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 22% per year. It's pretty clear that CytomX Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CytomX Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.