It's been a sad week for ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTN), who've watched their investment drop 18% to US$14.55 in the week since the company reported its first-quarter result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering ADTRAN Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$1.19b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a modest 5.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 46% to US$0.21. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.18b and US$0.34 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very promising decrease in losses per share in particular.

These new estimates led to the consensus price target rising 21% to US$19.50, with lower forecast losses suggesting things could be looking up for ADTRAN Holdings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic ADTRAN Holdings analyst has a price target of US$23.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that ADTRAN Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 15% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ADTRAN Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ADTRAN Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of ADTRAN Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think ADTRAN Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.