Shareholders might have noticed that Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.8% to US$81.89 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$11m, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at US$1.82 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the ten analysts covering Nektar Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$40.6m revenue in 2026, which would reflect a substantial 27% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$9.22 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$41.5m and losses of US$9.25 per share in 2026.

The consensus price target rose 6.2% to US$153, seeming to imply that weaker revenue sentiment is not expected to have a major impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nektar Therapeutics at US$192 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$80.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Nektar Therapeutics' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 34% to the end of 2026. This tops off a historical decline of 10% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 8.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Nektar Therapeutics to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Nektar Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Nektar Therapeutics has 3 warning signs (and 2 which don't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.