Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$1.7b and statutory earnings per share of US$1.85 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Texas Roadhouse is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Following the latest results, Texas Roadhouse's 27 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$6.54b in 2026. This would be a credible 4.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 5.1% to US$6.61. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.45 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Texas Roadhouse's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target rose 7.8% to US$216, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Texas Roadhouse analyst has a price target of US$276 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$125. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Texas Roadhouse's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 158 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Texas Roadhouse's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Texas Roadhouse's earnings potential next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Texas Roadhouse going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.