As you might know, X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:XFOR) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. Revenue crushed expectations at US$8.8m, beating expectations by 264%. X4 Pharmaceuticals reported a statutory loss of US$0.13 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on X4 Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from X4 Pharmaceuticals' five analysts is for revenues of US$16.2m in 2026. This would reflect a reasonable 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 28% to US$0.65. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$9.60m and US$0.73 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.

It will come as no surprise to learn thatthe analysts have increased their price target for X4 Pharmaceuticals 57% to US$11.60on the back of these upgrades. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic X4 Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that X4 Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 76% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than X4 Pharmaceuticals.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for X4 Pharmaceuticals going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.