Economist Mark Zandi Puts A Price On The Iran War: $21 Billion In Higher Gas Costs For Americans
On Sunday, Economist Mark Zandi said the war with Iran is driving up U.S. gasoline costs and adding broader economic pressure on consumers, even as temporary tax refund boosts provide short-term relief.
Gas Prices Surge As War Drives Costs Higher
Zandi said on X that the conflict has already pushed U.S. gasoline costs up by an estimated $21.3 billion over the past six weeks, calling it a major drag on consumer finances.
"The economic damage from the war with Iran is mounting," Zandi wrote, adding that higher fuel prices are spreading costs across the broader economy.
He noted that consumers have so far been partially cushioned by larger tax refunds tied to deficit-financed tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Zandi estimated that those refunds have totaled about $47.1 billion to date, providing a temporary boost to household income.
However, he warned that the relief is fading. "Those bigger refunds have totaled $47.1 billion," he said, adding that they are expected to taper off in the coming weeks.
Zandi also cautioned that energy prices are unlikely to fall back quickly, even if the conflict ends soon, and that broader inflation pressures could follow.
US–Iran War Raises Growth And Market Concerns
Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said U.S. economic growth may have slowed due to the U.S.–Iran war, noting the economy had been strong before the conflict.
He said he relied on business and bank data rather than precise GDP forecasts and argued the impact would depend on how long the war lasted.
He also said a "small bit of economic pain" was acceptable for long-term security.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the war's economic impact was already reflected in global markets and forecasts.
She said it would weigh on growth, but could ease if peace returned.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat said the war and higher defense spending had supported the economy and stock market by offsetting higher oil costs.
He said the conflict had boosted earnings but acknowledged it added modest pressure on household fuel costs, while arguing markets had become more resilient to shocks.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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