EMERGING MARKETS-EM stocks, FX sink to two-month lows on oil shock concerns
SAUDI ARAMCO 2222.SA | 27.60 | +0.15% |
Tadawul All Shares Index TASI.SA | 11268.38 | -0.07% |
Updates throughout
By Twesha Dikshit
March 9 (Reuters) - Emerging market stocks and currencies tumbled on Monday as the war in the Middle East triggered a surge in oil prices and dash to safety, with oil-importing nations facing the brunt of the selloff.
Bonds were not spared, as oil prices briefly leapt above $115 per barrel and stoked investor worries over inflation, raising the possibility that central banks may need to keep rates higher for longer.
Longer-dated frontier market bonds issued by smaller and riskier emerging economies suffered the sharpest falls, with Sri Lanka and Pakistan down more than 3 cents, while losses in Egypt and Kenya were not far behind.
The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for over 20% of the world's energy, adding to oil supply constraints.
Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as successor to his father as supreme leader, signalling hardliners remained in charge, in a move likely to draw U.S. President Donald Trump's ire.
Trump had previously rejected him as a candidate and asked for U.S. involvement in selecting the next leader.
MSCI's index of EM equities .MSCIEF fell 3.1% to a two-month low, while a corresponding gauge of currencies .MIEM00000CUS dipped 0.5%. That was after both posted their largest weekly decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.
"The impact on EM economies will be differentiated: net energy exporters (especially those geographically remote from the conflict) and economies with robust shock absorption capacity in the forms of large FX reserves and fiscal savings are likely to be the relative winners," said Peter Atanasov, Gramercy's co-head of sovereign research.
Credit default swaps, which gauge an issuer's risk of default, jumped, with Saudi Arabia's five-year swaps at an 11-month high of 93 basis points. Those in Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Dubai were up 4 bps each.
Bahrain's CDS soared 23 bps to their highest since November 2022, while Egypt's rose 12 bps. Israel and Turkey's gained 3 bps.
SELLOFF ACROSS THE BOARD
Middle East markets plunged, with indexes in Qatar .QSI, Abu Dhabi .FTFADGI and Dubai .DFMGI falling between 1.7% and 3.6%.
JPMorgan downgraded the MSCI UAE index to neutral from overweight. Analysts at the bank said they preferred Saudi Arabia over UAE in the region due to its lower foreign ownership and economy less dependent on foreign trade and tourism.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was down 1.3% after earlier hitting a seven-month low of 398.70 against the euro. The Polish zloty EURPLN= ticked down 0.4%, while the Czech crown EURCZK= edged down to six-month lows.
The benchmark index in Turkey .XU100, neighbouring Iran, sank 1.8%, while bourses in Hungary .BUX and Poland .WIG20 were down 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively. Stocks in Greece .ATG, a major shipping nation, dropped 2.2%.
Asian markets sank, with South Korea's blue-chip index .KS11 losing 6%, while indexes in Taiwan .TWII, Philippines .PSI and Indonesia .JKSE were down between 3.3% and 5%.
Barclays analysts said EM FX had suffered its largest drawdown since Trump's major tariff announcement last April, with currencies in Chile, Peru, South Africa, Brazil and Hungary emerging as the biggest losers.
Providing some relief was a Financial Times report that Group of Seven finance ministers and the International Energy Agency will discuss a joint emergency oil reserves release, which caused oil to pare some gains.
Saudi Aramco 2222.SE offered more than 4 million barrels of Saudi crude in rare tenders, traders said, as the state oil company attempts to reroute some of its exports through the Red Sea.
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