EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm currencies fall as Fed rate worries lift dollar

Brazil's cenbank cuts rates for a third straight meeting to 14.25%

Chile's peso weakens as copper prices fell

MSCI LatAm FX fall 1.5%, stocks off 0.8%

By Ragini Mathur and Avinash P

- Most Latin American currencies fell on Thursday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar as investors weighed the growing chances of a U.S. rate hike this year.

Regional stocks meanwhile edged higher with optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Three Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying 6 million barrels of crude passed through the strait, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a deal with Iran to end a war that had disrupted global energy supplies.


RATE WORRIES RETURN AS OIL RISK EASES

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled it could raise rates by year-end, sending the dollar index =USD to its highest level in more than a year on Thursday.

The stronger greenback weighed on Latin American currencies, with MSCI's regional currency index .MILA00000CUS down 1.5%. Meanwhile, the stocks gauge .MILA00000PUS fell 0.8%.

"As one risk for emerging markets may be fading (high oil price, following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire), another one may be intensifying (U.S. rate hikes)," said Hasnain Malik, head of geopolitical risk and EM equity strategy research at Tellimer.

Malik identified LatAm countries such as Brazil, Colombia and Argentina among emerging markets "where buffers to this risk are greatest," as they have high positive real rates, measured as policy rates minus inflation.

Late on Wednesday, Brazil's central bank cut rates at a third straight meeting to 14.25% and left its next steps open, despite acknowledging a tougher inflation outlook and risks from election-year fiscal stimulus.

The country's stock benchmark .BVSP gained 0.6%, while its currency BRL= fell 0.8%.

Inflation expectations have climbed steadily, including over longer horizons, as President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva expands household support measures ahead of his October re-election bid.

The country's Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on Thursday there was still room for further interest rate cuts, but emphasized that it was the central bank's prerogative.

Traders now expect Wednesday's cut to be the central bank's last this year, according to LSEG data.

The decision came as economists pared back expectations for rate cuts by major global central banks following an oil-price shock tied to the Middle East conflict.

Chile's peso CLP= fell 0.6% as copper, the country's top export, slipped. MET/L

Its benchmark stock index .SPIPSA jumped 0.5%.

Chile's central bank held its benchmark rate at 4.5% earlier this week.

Mexico's peso MXN= edged 0.4% lower, while the country's stock index .MXX gained 0.4%.

Trump said on Wednesday that the U.S. would be better off without the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and that he would prefer not to have a new pact, though he remained open to one.

The six-year-old USMCA and its predecessor have underpinned a deeply integrated North American economy. But as negotiations are expected to advance in the coming months, Mexican assets could face renewed volatility.



Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 14:32 GMT:


Stock indexes

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1787.84

0.29

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2984.65

-0.79

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

169436.86

0.58

Mexico IPC .MXX

68557.64

0.37

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

10863.27

0.53

Argentina MerVal .MERV

3340536.46

1.48

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

2389.14

0.55

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.1531

-0.82

Mexico peso MXN=

17.3608

-0.4

Chile peso CLP=

895.43

-0.64

Colombia peso COP=

3475.1

-0.76

Peru sol PEN=

3.3818

-0.16

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1,449.0

-0.49

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1,455.0

1.02