Energy Transfer (ET) is back in focus after management updated its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance and outlined plans to deploy $5.0 to $5.5 billion into natural gas infrastructure and data center supply projects.

The updated 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance and planned US$5.0 to US$5.5 billion growth spend come as Energy Transfer’s share price sits at US$18.86, with a 13.68% year to date share price return and a 5 year total shareholder return of 241.22%, suggesting that momentum has been building over time.

If this kind of infrastructure story interests you, it may be worth widening your search to other power and grid enablers through the Simply Wall St screener for 31 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With Energy Transfer trading at US$18.86 and sitting about 17% below the average analyst price target, plus an indicated intrinsic value discount of roughly 59%, you have to ask: is this a genuine opportunity, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.6% Undervalued

At $18.86, Energy Transfer trades below the narrative fair value of $22.07, which is built on detailed assumptions about future cash flows and contracts.

Aggressive organic growth project backlog (many expected to deliver mid teen returns from 2026 onward) and a proven history of successful M&A provide strong forward visibility into distributable cash flow and earnings growth, likely supporting valuation re rating over time.

Curious what turns a pipeline operator into a cash flow engine on paper? Revenue compounding, flat margins, and a richer future earnings multiple sit at the core of this fair value story.

Result: Fair Value of $22.07 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this story can change quickly if large, multi-billion-dollar gas projects face regulatory delays or if long-term fossil fuel demand trends soften.

Another View: Earnings Multiple Tells a Different Story

While the narrative fair value and SWS DCF model both point to undervaluation, the current P/E of 15.5x is slightly higher than the US Oil and Gas industry average of 15.1x. Against peers at 19.1x and a fair ratio of 28.2x, is the discount a cushion or a warning sign?

Next Steps

With mixed signals on value and sentiment so far, the real question is how you see the balance between upside and downside. Act while the data is fresh, review the key trade offs, and weigh both sides through the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.