UBS’s decision to nearly double its stake in Lucid Group (LCID) in the fourth quarter, buying millions of additional shares, has pushed the bank into the top tier of the company’s institutional owners.

Lucid’s latest 1 day share price return of 13.96% lifted the stock to US$10.86, but that sits against a 90 day share price return decline of 37.15% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 61.63%, suggesting recent momentum has improved while long term performance remains weak.

If Lucid’s volatility has you looking across the EV space, it could be worth scanning 33 AI infrastructure stocks as a way to find other companies linked to the growth of advanced auto and charging technology.

With UBS increasing its position and the share price still far below its recent 1 year level, the key question now is whether Lucid is being undervalued or if the market is already accounting for any potential future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 7.6% Undervalued

Lucid Group’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $11.75, a touch above the last close of $10.86, which frames the recent UBS move in a different light.

Lucid Group Inc. (LCID), currently trading at $2.76 per share, has faced significant challenges, including a 2.12% decrease in revenue to $595.27 million in 2023 and a 116.8% increase in losses, totaling $2.83 billion. Despite these setbacks, the company is expanding its product lineup with the introduction of the Gravity SUV, aiming to broaden its market appeal.

Curious how that fair value gets to a premium over today’s price even with heavy losses on the table? According to M_Kabesh, the narrative leans on aggressive revenue expansion, improving margins and a future earnings multiple more often associated with established growth names, not early stage EV players.

Result: Fair Value of $11.75 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the narrative could easily be knocked off course if Lucid struggles to rein in its US$3.14b loss or if revenue growth stalls from current levels.

Another View On Lucid’s Valuation

The user narrative points to Lucid being 7.6% undervalued at $11.75, but the current P/S of 3.3x tells a different story. That is well above the US Auto industry at 0.6x and the peer average at 1.4x. The fair ratio is 0x, which suggests very limited valuation support if things go wrong.

Build Your Own Lucid Group Narrative

If you are not on board with this take or simply prefer to test the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Lucid Group research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.