The US Dollar ended the week with a modest rebound as the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against President Donald Trump's use of emergency tariffs. However, Trump is unwilling to let the matter go without a fight, and he's deploying a temporary 10% tariff under Section 122. His act ensures trade frictions remain a feature of the market and supports the dollar.

Rate‑cut odds for March fell further, and June probabilities were pared back, but not enough to constitute a full repricing. The Dollar took its cue from this combination of reduced near‑term easing hopes and stabilizing 10‑year yields, with the Dollar Index (DXY) extending its rebound off the 95.55 low and breaking above the 55‑day EMA around 97.6.

Meanwhile, the Fed's minutes delivered a more hawkish tone than investors had anticipated, mentioning "two‑sided" risks and clearly pushing back against the notion of a pre‑programmed glide path to cuts.

Rate‑cut odds for March fell further, and June probabilities were pared back, but not enough to constitute a full repricing. The Dollar took its cue from this combination of reduced near‑term easing hopes and stabilizing 10‑year yields, with the Dollar Index (DXY) extending its rebound off the 95.55 low and breaking above the key level around 97.6.

Still, this move lacks the conviction of a new bull run. Price action remains consistent with a corrective recovery inside a downtrend.  Furthermore, the resistance around 100.39 continues to define the ceiling for any tactical upside.

The underlying risk environment proved more resilient than the headlines might suggest. Despite sharpening U.S.–Iran tensions and a visible war premium in oil and gold, equities consolidated just shy of record highs. High‑beta FX remained supported, showing that investors are treating these shocks as manageable tail risks rather than regime‑changing events.

Pairs In Focus

1. GBP SGD

This pair has failed to break higher and has broken through two clear zones of interest in February.

GBP/SGD daily chart, Source: TradingView

The price is now rejecting from the key 1.71 level. Any sustained effort to fail to close above 1.71100 and the possibility of a decisive move below 1.69 is becoming more likely.

2. EUR NZD

This pair has completed the previously noted head-and-shoulders pattern, declining to 1.96225.

EUR NZD daily chart, Source: TradingView

If the price decisively breaks through that level and tags the previous low, it could signal a sustained move lower toward 1.92600.

The Week Ahead

The coming week will show whether the Dollar's recent bounce can take root or fade and give way to the downtrend.

However, the crucial moment for the entire market this week is Nvidia's earnings report, which lands on Wednesday after market close.  The firm grew so large that its results are now a make-or-break for the equity market, which spills over to everything.

A solid result would signal that the AI-driven capex story continues. Thus, equity resilience would limit the short-term haven factors supporting the DXY. Any disappointment would likely trigger a tech rout and give the dollar the strength it needs.

On the macro side, consumer confidence data on Tuesday, and PPI and Chicago PMI data on Friday will provide further clues on economic growth. Softer confidence and subdued wholesale inflation would re‑anchor expectations for rate cuts later in the year and could stall DXY's advance, especially if the 10‑year drifts back toward the 4.0% area.

Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed in this article are not to be considered investment advice and are solely those of the authors. Singapore Forex Club is not responsible for any financial decisions based on this article’s contents. We provide education, research, and broker reviews. Readers may use this data for informational and educational purposes only.