Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Exagen outperformed estimates, with revenues of US$20m beating estimates by 12%. Statutory losses were US$0.13, 32% smaller thanthe analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Exagen after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Exagen's seven analysts is for revenues of US$73.9m in 2026. This reflects a modest 3.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 17% from last year to US$0.65. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$71.7m and losses of US$0.69 per share in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and losses per share.

It will come as no surprise to learn thatthe analysts have increased their price target for Exagen 15% to US$9.86on the back of these upgrades. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Exagen at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$9.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Exagen shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Exagen'shistorical trends, as the 7.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 8.7% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 23% annually. So it's pretty clear that Exagen is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Exagen going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.