Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$17m leading estimates by 5.5%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.17 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following the latest results, Exagen's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$71.6m in 2026. This would be a satisfactory 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 17% from last year to US$0.69. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$71.3m and losses of US$0.73 per share in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$8.67, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Exagen at US$10.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Exagen is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Exagen's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Exagen's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 8.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 22% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Exagen is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Exagen's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$8.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Exagen going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.