War in Iran, questions over US military readiness, and an “indefinite” naval blockade are keeping geopolitical risk firmly on investors’ screens. That backdrop can reshape expectations for future defence spending and energy-market risk premia, which matters for everything from integrated oil and gas majors to broader equity sentiment. This article discusses three stocks from our US listed global majors screener that appear well placed on the positive side of this story.

The three stocks covered below are just a starting sample, and the wider screen surfaced 25 more large integrated oil and gas companies with equally compelling narratives that are not covered in this article. To identify and analyze the highest conviction plays that fit this theme, head straight to the US-Listed Global Integrated Oil & Gas Majors screener.

Murphy Oil (MUR)

Overview: Murphy Oil is a Houston based exploration and production company that searches for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids across the United States, Canada, and several international basins.

Operations: Murphy Oil generates the bulk of its roughly US$3 billion in revenue from exploration and production in the United States at about US$2.4 billion, with around US$577 million from Canada and a small contribution from other regions.

Market Cap: US$5.0b

Murphy Oil provides direct exposure to crude pricing through a focused upstream portfolio in the U.S., Canada and emerging international plays such as the Bubale discovery in Côte d’Ivoire. Appraisal drilling through 2027 could influence its long term production mix. Management has pushed costs lower and is using higher recent cash flows to fund a larger US$1.55 billion capex program for 2026 while still supporting dividends and buybacks. This approach comes with the usual exploration and execution risk, particularly in deepwater projects. Earnings quality is described as high and the stock screens as undervalued against some intrinsic value estimates. However, recent analyst target cuts and its P/E premium to peers indicate that views on the stock are mixed.

Murphy Oil’s higher recent cash flows and larger US$1.55b 2026 capex plan hint at a story that many investors may not have fully pieced together yet. Get the full context with the DCF valuation analysis for Murphy Oil

Build your own cash flow and capex shortlist

Murphy Oil and the two other stocks in this article all surfaced from a single Simply Wall St screen, but the real edge comes when you shape the filters yourself. Use our flexible Screener to blend valuation, growth, balance sheet strength, risks and dividends into your own shortlist, or tap into any of our curated Investing Ideas for ready made themes.

Mach Natural Resources (MNR)

Overview: Mach Natural Resources is an independent upstream oil and gas company that acquires, develops, and produces oil, natural gas, and NGL reserves across the Anadarko, San Juan, and Permian basins, supported by its own gathering, processing, and water infrastructure.

Operations: Mach Natural Resources generates about US$1.3 billion in revenue from oil and gas exploration and production in the United States.

Market Cap: US$2.2b

Mach Natural Resources is noted for its low cost, flexible drilling program and large, held by production acreage, which lets management quickly pivot between gas and oil. This was evident in the recent shift toward crude focused wells following the Iran conflict and related price signals. The company targets a reinvestment rate capped at 50% of operating cash flow, aims to reduce leverage toward 1x debt to EBITDA by 2027, and continues to pay a double digit distribution yield. At the same time, earnings have come under pressure, dividend coverage looks thin, and funding relies heavily on external borrowing and equity issuance. For investors, Mach represents an income heavy, commodity sensitive profile with both potential advantages and balance sheet and dilution risks to evaluate carefully.

Mach Natural Resources appears to be an income engine, but it may be masking deeper questions about sustainability and balance sheet pressure. Before assuming that the double-digit payout tells the whole story, review the full 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs (3 are major!)

ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)

Overview: ExxonMobil Holdings is a global energy company that explores for and produces oil and gas, refines crude into fuels, and manufactures chemicals and specialty products sold under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. It also runs growing businesses in lower emission solutions such as carbon capture, hydrogen, lower emission fuels, and lithium.

Operations: ExxonMobil Holdings generates most of its roughly US$533 billion in segment revenue from Energy Products at about US$334 billion across US and non US markets, followed by Upstream at about US$112 billion and Chemical and Specialty Products together at about US$55 billion, with intersegment eliminations reducing the consolidated total.

Market Cap: US$652.2 billion

ExxonMobil Holdings sits at the center of the current Iran related supply risk story, with a global upstream and refining footprint, record Permian and upstream volumes, and projects in regions like Guyana and Qatar that are closely watched any time the Strait of Hormuz is in focus. Recent results show strong cash generation, large cost savings and a mix of dividends and sizeable buybacks, while the stock trades below some intrinsic value estimates even as its P/E sits above many peers. At the same time, slower forecast revenue growth, regulatory and ESG pressure around long term oil demand, and exposure to chemicals margin swings mean this is not a simple crude price proxy. For investors, ExxonMobil offers scale and resilience, and the full risk reward picture is more nuanced than the headline geopolitics suggest.

ExxonMobil looks like a cash engine hiding in plain sight, with scale, cost savings and buybacks that the market may not be fully pricing. Before assuming the story is simple, walk through the full analysis report for ExxonMobil Holdings

Seeking Fresh Alternatives Before Others Catch On

Some of the most interesting breakout stories may start flying under the radar and can attract attention quickly once momentum builds. Do not wait for headlines; review ideas early and then decide how they fit your plan.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.