FACTBOX-Barclays raises 2026 Brent price forecast to $100 per barrel
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS | 0.00 |
Adds latest estimates from Barclays
May 1 (Reuters) - Barclays on Friday raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $100 per barrel, noting that prices could rise further if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist longer than expected.
"The longer this lasts, the bigger and stickier the price shock," Barclays said in a note.
The bank said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at a trickle, while inventory draws are accelerating.
Barclays estimates that the market is currently facing a 6.6 million barrels per day deficit, which is likely to widen.
Meanwhile, the bank said the UAE's exit from OPEC could help narrow the medium-term gap between non-OPEC supply and demand growth, but was unlikely to fully close it and would come at the expense of spare capacity.
If the current disruption continues through the end of May, forward-implied 2026 Brent prices could reprice to $110 a barrel, Barclays said.
Crude oil futures fell on Friday after Iran proposed negotiations with the U.S., though prices remained on track for weekly gains as Tehran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Navy maintained its blockade of Iranian crude exports.O/R
Brent crude futures for July LCOc1 settled at $108.17 on Friday, while West Texas Intermediate futures CLc1 finished at $101.94 a barrel.
Brokerage/Agency |
Brent |
WTI |
Forecasts as of |
Price Targets |
||
|
2026 |
2027 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
|
Goldman Sachs |
$90 ($83 previously) |
$85 ($80 previously) |
$83 ($78 previously) |
$80 ($75 previously) |
April 26, 2026 |
Raises 4Q 2026 Brent, WTI forecast to $90/$83 |
Citi |
$91 |
$75 |
$83 |
$70 |
April 26, 2026 |
Raises Brent price forecast to $110/bbl in Q2'26, $95/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
ANZ |
$92 |
$76 |
$88 |
$76 |
April 9, 2026 |
|
UBS |
- |
- |
- |
- |
April 13, 2026 |
Expects prices to trade >$150/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Sees Brent at $100/bbl by end-June 2026, $95 by end-Sept, $90 by end-Dec |
Macquarie |
$89.28 |
$74.50 |
$82.93 |
$70.50 |
March 27 |
If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200
|
Morgan Stanley |
- |
$80 ($70 previously) |
- |
- |
March 24, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices to remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026 |
J.P. Morgan |
- |
$72 |
- |
- |
March 20, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered |
$85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
|
Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA |
$77.50 ($61 previously) |
$66 ($62 previously) |
- |
$61 ($59 previously) |
March 16, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays |
$100 (from $85 previously) |
- |
- |
- |
May 1 |
If the current situation continues through the end of May, forward-implied 2026 Brent should reprice to $110/b |
BMI |
$70 ($67 previously) |
$70 |
$68 |
$68 |
March 12, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
HSBC |
$80 ($65 previously) |
$70 ($66 previously) |
$76($61 previously) |
$67 ($63 previously) |
March 10, 2026 |
|