FACTBOX-Most brokerages see no Fed policy change this year
Updates with UBS' forecast
June 16 (Reuters) - Most global brokerages are betting on the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady for the rest of 2026, reversing from expectations of two interest rate cuts at the start of the year, as policymakers navigate elevated inflation risks and a resilient labor market.
UBS Global Wealth Management became the latest to push back its rate-cut forecasts, ahead of this week's policy meeting.
Traders are betting on a roughly 42% probability for the Fed to hike rates by 25 bps in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool, paring some expectations following the U.S.-Iran peace deal.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:
Brokerage |
Total cuts in 2026 |
No. of cuts in 2026 |
Fed Funds Rate |
Citigroup |
75 bps |
3 (in September, October and December) |
2.75%-3.00% |
Wells Fargo |
50 bps |
2 (in October and December) |
3.00-3.25% |
UBS Global Wealth Management |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
UBS Global Research |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Goldman Sachs |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Nomura |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
BofA Global Research |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Barclays |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Morgan Stanley |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Deutsche Bank |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
BNP Paribas |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
HSBC |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
J.P. Morgan |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Standard Chartered |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Societe Generale |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Macquarie |
No policy change |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
BNP Paribas |
25 bps rate hike in December |
- |
3.75%-4.00% |