FACTBOX-Most brokerages see no Fed policy easing this year
Updates with Nomura and UBS Wealth Management's forecasts
May 27 (Reuters) - Most global brokerages are betting on no policy easing in the U.S. for the rest of 2026, diverging from early-year expectations of two interest rate cuts, amid elevated inflation risks and cautious policymakers.
Nomura and UBS Wealth Management became the latest to push back their U.S. rate-cut forecasts.
Market expectations have tilted towards rate hikes, with traders betting on a roughly 37% probability for the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:
Brokerage |
Total cuts in 2026 |
No. of cuts in 2026 |
Fed Funds Rate |
Citigroup |
75 bps |
3 (in September, October and December) |
2.75%-3.00% |
Wells Fargo |
50 bps |
2 (in June and September) |
3.00-3.25% |
UBS Global Wealth Management |
25 bps |
1 (December) |
3.25%-3.50% |
Goldman Sachs |
25 bps |
1 (in December) |
3.25%-3.50% |
UBS Global Research |
25 bps |
1 (in December) |
3.25%-3.50% |
Nomura |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
BofA Global Research |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Barclays |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Morgan Stanley |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Deutsche Bank |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
BNP Paribas |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
HSBC |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
J.P. Morgan |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Standard Chartered |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Societe Generale |
No rate cuts |
- |
3.50%-3.75% |
Macquarie |
Rate hike (in H1 2027) |
- |
- |