FACTBOX-UBS raises Brent oil price view as Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist
Adds latest estimates from UBS
April 13 (Reuters) - The path of least resistance for crude oil prices continues to remain upward as long as flows through the Strait of Hormuz stay restricted, UBS said in a note on Monday as it raised its Brent crude prices forecasts.
The bank increased its Brent price forecast to $100 a barrel by the end of June 2026, $95 by the end of September, and $90 by the end of December. It also expects Brent to trade at $85 a barrel by the end of March 2027.
"There is elevated uncertainty in respect to these forecasts depending on how the conflict evolves, what energy infrastructure is disrupted, and when flows through the strait resume," it noted.
A prolonged disruption would raise the risk of a short-term price overshoot, with Brent potentially trading above $150 a barrel, while heightening the likelihood of demand destruction, UBS said.
It added that scarcity-driven hoarding could further amplify price swings.
Brokerage/Agency |
Brent |
WTI |
Forecasts as of |
Price Targets |
||
|
2026 |
2027 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
|
Goldman Sachs |
$83 ($85 previously) |
$80 |
$78 ($79 previously) |
$75 |
April 9, 2026 |
Trims 2Q 2026 Brent, WTI forecast to $90/$87 |
ANZ |
$92 |
%76 |
$88 |
$76 |
April 9, 2026 |
|
UBS |
- |
- |
- |
- |
April 13, 2026 |
Expects prices to trade >$150/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Sees Brent at $100/bbl by end-June 2026, $95 by end-Sept, $90 by end-Dec |
Macquarie |
$89.28 |
$74.50 |
$82.93 |
$70.50 |
March 27 |
If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200
|
Morgan Stanley |
- |
$80 ($70 previously) |
- |
- |
March 24, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices to remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026 |
J.P Morgan |
- |
$72 |
- |
- |
March 20, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered |
$85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
|
Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA |
$77.50 ($61 previously) |
$66 ($62 previously) |
- |
$61 ($59 previously) |
March 16, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays |
$85 (from $65 previously) The forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks |
- |
- |
- |
March 13, 2026 |
But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, says Brent could climb to $100/bbl |
BMI |
$70 ($67 previously) |
$70 |
$68 |
$68 |
March 12, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
Citi |
$71 ($63 previously) |
$64 |
$68($60 previously) |
$61 |
March 11, 2026 |
Anticipates Brent averaging $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3’26 |
HSBC |
$80 ($65 previously) |
$70($66 previously) |
$76($61 previously) |
$67($63 previously) |
March 10, 2026 |
|