Updates with forecasts from HSBC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital Markets and BofA Global Research

May 12 (Reuters) - Top brokerages expect the benchmark S&P 500 index .SPX to extend its rally in 2026, even as Middle East tensions disrupt global energy flows and drive inflation higher.

Strategists at major investment banks expect momentum in artificial intelligence and strong corporate earnings to offset the conflict's short-term economic impact. However, they warned that persistently higher oil prices could increase recession risks.

HSBC and RBC Capital Markets raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 this month, flagging resilient earnings growth and continued strength in AI‑linked sectors.

Following are forecasts from some top brokerages on economic growth and the performance of U.S. stocks in 2026:

Forecasts for stocks:

Brokerage	2026 S&P 500 index target
BofA Global Research	7,100
Societe Generale	7,300
UBS Global Research	7,500
Jefferies	7,500
Canaccord Genuity	7,500
BNP Paribas	7,500
UBS Global Wealth Management	7,500
Goldman Sachs	7,600
J.P. Morgan	7,600
Barclays	7,650
HSBC	7,650
Citigroup	7,700
Evercore ISI	7,750
Morgan Stanley	7,800
Seaport Research Partners	7,800
RBC Capital Markets	7,900
Deutsche Bank	8,000
Oppenheimer Asset Management	8,100
Wells Fargo Investment Institute	7,400-7,600

Real GDP Growth:

Brokerage	GLOBAL	U.S.	EURO AREA	UK
Citigroup	2.7%	2.3%	0.9%	0.8%
Goldman Sachs	2.4%	2.1%	0.7%	0.9%
Morgan Stanley	3.1%	2.2%	0.6%	0.7%
Barclays	3.1%	2.6%	0.8%	0.7%
Wells Fargo	2.7%	2.2%	0.7%	0.6%
UBS Global Wealth Management	3.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.1%
Deutsche Bank	3.3%	2.5%	0.5%	1.3%
HSBC	2.5%	2.1%	0.7%	0.8%
J.P.Morgan	2.5%	2.2%	1.0%	0.5%
BofA Global Research	3.1%	2.2%	0.6%	1.2%
UBS Global Research	3.1%	1.7%	0.8%	0.6%

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank