Shareholders might have noticed that First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.7% to US$12.45 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$355m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 18% to hit US$0.04 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for First Watch Restaurant Group from eleven analysts is for revenues of US$1.39b in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 64% to US$0.10 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.14 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$19.27, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic First Watch Restaurant Group analyst has a price target of US$22.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$17.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that First Watch Restaurant Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while First Watch Restaurant Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for First Watch Restaurant Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.