It's been a good week for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 4.2% to US$17.19. Revenue of US$316m surpassed estimates by 2.1%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 25% below expectations at US$0.05 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering First Watch Restaurant Group are now predicting revenues of US$1.41b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a substantial 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 307% to US$0.33. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.42b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.34 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$22.36, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values First Watch Restaurant Group at US$26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$17.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of First Watch Restaurant Group'shistorical trends, as the 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 20% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that First Watch Restaurant Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple First Watch Restaurant Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.