The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:FND), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.2% short of analyst estimates at US$1.2b, and statutory earnings of US$0.37 per share missed forecasts by 9.3%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following the latest results, Floor & Decor Holdings' 21 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.83b in 2026. This would be a modest 3.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 2.8% to US$1.90. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.97b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.06 in 2026. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 23% to US$54.55. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Floor & Decor Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$75.00 and the most bearish at US$37.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Floor & Decor Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 8.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Floor & Decor Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Floor & Decor Holdings. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Floor & Decor Holdings' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Floor & Decor Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Floor & Decor Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.