Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. (NYSE:FBIN), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.20, some 61% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$1.0b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Fortune Brands Innovations' 17 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$4.42b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 35% to US$3.07. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.48b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.38 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.4% to US$47.57, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Fortune Brands Innovations at US$68.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$37.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Fortune Brands Innovations' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2026 compared to the historical decline of 5.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 7.0% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Fortune Brands Innovations is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Fortune Brands Innovations. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Fortune Brands Innovations analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Fortune Brands Innovations (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.