Fox (FOXA) shares are in focus after the company announced a multi-year agreement with the National Football League to bring extensive live NFL coverage and original programming to its platforms in Mexico starting in 2026.

The new NFL agreement lands at a time when Fox’s 1 month share price return of 7.15% and 3 month share price return of 15.96% contrast with a year to date decline of 8.57%, while the 1 year and 3 year total shareholder returns of 25.85% and 109.15% point to stronger longer term momentum in shareholder outcomes.

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With Fox trading at $67.44, an estimated 30% intrinsic discount, and around a 10% gap to analyst targets, the question is simple: is the stock still undervalued, or is the NFL Mexico story already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.7% Undervalued

Fox’s most widely followed narrative pegs fair value near $73.88, a touch above the current $67.44 share price, and anchors that view in earnings power and live content exposure.

Strong demand for live news and sports, digital expansion, pricing power, and operational discipline position Fox for resilient growth despite industry challenges and media shifts.

Curious what sits behind that fair value gap? The narrative leans on measured revenue growth, firmer margins, and a future earnings multiple that differs from many media peers.

Result: Fair Value of $73.88 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this depends on Fox containing rising sports rights costs and offsetting pressure on traditional TV audiences, issues that could quickly challenge those fair value assumptions.

Next Steps

If the mixed signals in this story leave you on the fence, pull up the numbers yourself and stress test the assumptions that matter most. To see what the market currently views as the upside case, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.