Futu Holdings (NasdaqGM:FUTU) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of HK$5.4b and basic EPS of HK$6.07, alongside trailing 12 month revenue of HK$22.3b and basic EPS of HK$71.96 that together frame the latest print against a much larger earnings base. Over the past year, revenue has moved from HK$13.9b on a trailing basis to HK$22.3b, while trailing basic EPS has stepped up from HK$47.34 to HK$71.96, putting the new quarter in the context of a materially bigger income stream for shareholders. With trailing net profit margins at 45%, investors are likely to focus on how much of that revenue is still being converted into bottom line profit as the story develops.

See our full analysis for Futu Holdings.

With the numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the key narratives around Futu Holdings, and where the data supports or challenges what the market has been saying.

TTM earnings growth outpaces revenue

• Over the last 12 months, total revenue on a trailing basis is HK$22.3b and net income is HK$10.0b, with earnings up 53.3% compared with the prior year while revenue growth is referenced at about 12.4% per year.
• Supporters of the bullish view point to this gap between earnings and revenue growth as evidence of strong operating leverage, yet:
  • Net profit margin is around 45% on a trailing basis compared with 47.1% the prior year, so profitability is high but not expanding in line with the most optimistic margin assumptions.
  • Forecast earnings growth of about 19.8% per year is lower than the recent 53.3% outcome, which investors who lean bullish may compare carefully with bullish narrative expectations for much faster growth into 2029.

Supporters who think recent earnings growth is just the start of a longer run often point to global expansion and new products as key drivers, so it is worth weighing those expectations against the actual TTM numbers before leaning too hard into the optimistic case 🐂 Futu Holdings Bull Case.

Margins strong but off their peak

• Trailing net profit margin stands at about 45% versus 47.1% the prior year, even as trailing revenue reached HK$22.3b and trailing net income reached roughly HK$10.0b.
• Bears highlight that pressure on commissions and higher compliance and operating costs could squeeze profitability over time, and the current data gives them some support:
  • The slight margin step down from 47.1% to 45% sits alongside forecasts that margins could shrink to 52.3% in the cautious 2029 scenario. As a result, the current trend is being watched closely by more skeptical investors.
  • At the same time, trailing earnings growth of 53.3% over the last year runs ahead of the more moderate long term forecast, which may challenge the idea that margin pressure is already severely limiting earnings power.

Skeptical investors often argue that even small margin shifts can matter a lot when earnings are already high, so this early move from 47.1% to 45% is a key datapoint to track against the cautious thesis 🐻 Futu Holdings Bear Case.

Compressed valuation versus growth profile

• With the share price around US$104.91, the trailing P/E of about 11.5x sits well below a peer average of 19.4x and an industry average of 39.8x, and also below a DCF fair value of roughly US$218.66.
• The consensus style narrative argues that this discount reflects a mix of strong growth and real risks, and the current figures underline that tension:
  • Revenue is referenced as growing around 12.4% per year and earnings grew 53.3% over the last year with forecasts of roughly 19.8% per year, which aligns with a growth profile some investors usually associate with higher P/E multiples.
  • On the risk side, recent share price volatility and the dip in margin from 47.1% to 45% may help explain why the stock trades below both peers and the cited DCF fair value even with that growth backdrop.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Futu Holdings on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With mixed signals on growth, margins and valuation, the question now is what you make of the trade off between upside and risk. Take a moment to review the full data and pressure test both the bullish and cautious stories against your own expectations, then weigh up the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Explore Alternatives

Futu Holdings combines strong earnings with a trailing P/E discount, but margin slippage, forecasts below recent growth, and share price volatility highlight real risk trade offs.

If those pressure points make you uneasy, compare this profile with 64 resilient stocks with low risk scores to quickly spot companies where earnings, margins and volatility look better aligned with your comfort level.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.