Gemini Space Station, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEMI) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.6% to US$3.92 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$45m beat expectations by a respectable 4.6%, although statutory losses per share increased. Gemini Space Station lost US$0.89, which was 26% more than what the analysts had included in their models. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Gemini Space Station after the latest results.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eight analysts covering Gemini Space Station is for revenues of US$183.8m in 2026. This implies a chunky 11% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 19% from last year to US$3.22. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$197.2m and losses of US$3.09 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on Gemini Space Station after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a pronounced increase to per-share loss expectations.

The consensus price target fell 6.1% to US$5.94, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gemini Space Station at US$9.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 21% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 51% over the last year. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Gemini Space Station is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Gemini Space Station. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Gemini Space Station's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Gemini Space Station. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Gemini Space Station going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.