Overview

• U.S. secure facilities operator's Q1 revenue rose 17% yr/yr, beating analyst expectations

• Company repurchased 3.6 mln shares for $50 mln in Q1

• Full-year 2026 revenue and earnings guidance raised

Outlook

• Geo Group raises FY26 revenue guidance to $2.95-$3.10 bln

• Company lifts FY26 net income guidance to $153-$166 mln, or $1.15-$1.25 per diluted share

• Geo Group expects FY26 adjusted EBITDA of $525-$545 mln

Result Drivers

• NEW CONTRACTS - Revenue growth driven by new and expanded contracts entered into throughout 2025

• FACILITY ACTIVATIONS - Reactivation of previously idle facilities and new contracts for ICE detainees added to revenue

• LOWER LABOR COSTS - Operating expenses benefited from lower-than-expected labor costs versus prior guidance

Company press release: ID:nBw21h5Xxa

Key Details

Metric	Beat/Miss	Actual	Consensus Estimate
Q1 Revenue	Beat	$705.20 mln	$688.89 mln (5 Analysts)
Q1 EPS		$0.29
Q1 Adjusted Net Income	Beat	$38.60 mln	$28.19 mln (2 Analysts)
Q1 Net Income		$38.30 mln

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 4 "strong buy" or "buy", no "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the business support services peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Geo Group Inc is $28.00, about 52.5% above its May 5 closing price of $18.36

• The stock recently traded at 13 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 12 three months ago

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